水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

基于中国603个气象站的地表气温和降水观测资料以及GIMMS NDVI3g数据，采用变
化趋势分析和多元回归残差分析等方法研究了1982—2015年中国植被NDVI变化特征及其主
要驱动因素（即气候变化和人类活动）的相应贡献。结果表明：① 1982—2015年中国植被恢复
明显，在选择的32个省级行政区中，山西、陕西和重庆的生长季NDVI增加最快，仅上海生长季
NDVI呈减小趋势。② 气候变化和人类活动的共同作用是中国植被NDVI呈现整体快速增加
和巨大空间差异的主要原因，其中气候变化对各省生长季NDVI变化的影响在−0.01×10 −3 ~
1.05×10 −3 a −1 之间，而人类活动的影响在−0.32×10 −3 ~1.77×10 −3 a −1 之间。③ 气候变化和人类活动
分别对中国近34年来植被NDVI的增加贡献了40%和60%；人类活动贡献率超过80%的区域
主要集中在黄土高原中部、华北平原以及中国东北和西南等地；人类活动贡献率大于50%的省
份有22个，其中贡献率最大的3个地区为上海、黑龙江和云南。研究结果建议应更加重视人类
活动在植被恢复中的作用。

 Based on the observed daily temperature and precipitation of the land surface of 603
meteorological stations in China, the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS)
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 3rd generation dataset, the changing patterns
of NDVI in China during 1982-2015 were investigated and the corresponding contributions of
the main driving forces, climatic change and human activities, to these changes were
distinguished using the methods of trend analysis and multiple regression residuals analysis.
The results showed that vegetation recovered in whole China in research period significantly.
Shanghai was the single case with a decrease in growing season NDVI in the selected 32
provincial-level administrative regions, while the growing season NDVI in Shanxi, Shaanxi,
and Chongqing increased much faster compared with other regions. The climatic change and
human activities drove the NDVI change jointly as main forces in China and induced both a
rapid increasing trend on the whole and a huge spatial difference. The impacts of climatic
change on NDVI change in the growing-season ranged from -0.01×10 −3 a −1 to 1.05×10 −3 a −1 ,
while the impacts of human activities changed from -0.32×10
− 3
a
− 1
to 1.77×10
− 3
a
− 1 . The
contributions of climatic change and human activities accounted for 40% and 60% ,
respectively, to the increase of NDVI in China in the past 34 years. The regions where the
contribution rates of human activities were more than 80% were mainly distributed in the
central part of the Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the northeast and the southwest of
China. There were 22 provincial-level regions where the contributions of human activities were
more than 50% , and the shares of contribution induced by human activities in Shanghai,
Heilongjiang, and Yunnan were much greater than those of any other regions. The results
suggest that we should focus more on the role of human activities in vegetation restoration in
the whole country.