水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

本文主要采用1982-2006年的NOAA/AVHRR NDVI 8 km数据和黄土高原及周边
地区 82 个气象站点的降水、气温数据，探讨了黄土高原地区植被覆盖、主要气候因
子的时、空变化特征，以及之间的响应规律，并通过残差分析法分析了人类活动及气
候变化对区域植被改善的影响贡献程度。论文主要结论如下：
1）1982-2006 年，黄土高原地区植被覆盖度呈不显著上升趋势，植被覆盖度波动
较低。四季平均植被覆盖度线性趋势均为正。未变化的植被覆盖度面积占 85.29%以
上，为中低植被覆盖水平，植被覆盖改善面积占 9.17%，退化面积占 5.54%。重心演
变分析发现，中低和高植被覆盖面积重心位置基本不变，中高、中和低植被覆盖面积
水平分别向东、西北和东南移动。
2）同时期黄土高原地区年降水量呈不显著下降趋势，平均减少速率为 1.9mm/a，
春、夏、秋季降水量均呈不显著下降趋势，但夏季下降趋势最大。黄土高原地区年均
气温呈极显著（p<0.001）上升趋势，上升速率为 0.7℃/10a。四季平均温度均为增加
趋势，春、夏两季温度达到显著（p＜0.01）上升趋势。气候趋于暖干化。
3）植被覆盖度与年降水量和年均温的偏相关性均达到显著，但空间差异明显。
黄土高原地区植被覆盖度与降水量空间上呈正相关的面积达到 85.9%，有 22.3%的面
积达到显著正相关（p<0.05）。而与温度呈正相关的面积为 68.7%，17.6%的面积达到
显著正相关 (p<0.05)。植被生长对降水因子的响应更为敏感。
4）初步认为 1997-2006 年人类活动对植被生长的贡献率约为 20%，气候变化对
植被生长的贡献达 80%。
关键词：黄土高原地区；气候变化；植被覆盖度；人类活动

This paper, by basing on NOAA/AVHRR NDVI 8 km data between 1982 and 2006,
along with rainfall and temperature data of 82 meteorological stations on Loess Plateau
and its surrounding places, has discussed the vegetation cover, changing characteristics on
time and space of major climatic factors and their mutual response regularity; moreover,
the influence and contribution degrees of human activities and climate changes on regional
vegetation cover are analyzed with residual analysis. Major conclusions of this paper
include:
1) from 1982 to 2006, vegetation cover of Loess Plateau rose insignificantly and
vegetation cover did not go through any big change; the linear trend of average vegetation
cover in four seasons were positive; the area of unchanged vegetation cover was taking up
more than 85.29%, a level of low and medium vegetation cover; the area of improved
vegetation area was taking up 9.17%; the area of vegetation degradation was taking up
5.54%. According to a core evolution analysis, the core positions of low and medium
vegetation cover and high vegetation cover were mainly kept unchanged, the coverage
levels of medium and high vegetation, medium vegetation and low vegetation moved
towards directions of east, northwest and southeast respectively.
2) meanwhile, the annual rainfall of Loess Plateau declined insignificantly, in an
average rate of 1.9mm/a; the rainfalls in the four seasons declined insignificantly though
rainfall in summer season declined most obviously; the annual average temperature on
Loess Plateau rose significantly (p<0.001), at a rate of 0.7℃/10a; temperatures in the four
seasons were on the rise and temperatures in spring and summer rose significantly
(p<0.01); the climate was changing toward warmer and dryer.
3) the partially correlation between vegetation covers and annual rainfalls and annual  average temperatures were significant but spatial difference was obvious; the area in which
the vegetation covers on Loess Plateau were positively related to rainfall in space was
taking up 85.9%, of which 22.3% reached the level of significant correlation(p<0.05); the
area in which vegetation covers were positively related to temperatures was taking up
68.7%, of which 17.6% reached the level of significant positive correlation (p<0.05);
vegetation growth was very sensitive to the response of precipitation factors.
4) from 1997 to 2006, the contribution rate of human activities to vegetation growth
was about 20% while the that of climate changes was as high as 80%.
Key words: Loess Plateau area; climate change; vegetation cover; human activity