水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

为探究黄河中游径流时空变化特征及其驱动因素，本文采用 Spearman 秩相关系数、水文情势突变指标
及双累积曲线法对中游头道拐-花园口区间干流 4 个水文站及 11 条典型支流 1957—2018 年实测降雨、径流数据
进行统计分析。结果表明：黄河中游干流站年径流量呈显著减少趋势（显著性水平 0.001），各站年径流发生两次
突变，且都出现在 1969 年与 1987 年前后；区间 11 条支流多年径流深自 1970s 后显著减少，头道拐–龙门区间径
流占整个中游区间径流的比例由 2000 年前的 31%减至之后的 23.5%，龙门断面以下区间占比则明显上升；人类
活动对头道拐–龙门与龙门–潼关区间多年平均径流变化贡献率分别为 62.68%和 79.85%，坝库工程、引水灌溉及
梯田林草等水利水保工程措施是黄河中游径流锐减的主要驱动力。

 This paper presents a systematic analysis on spatiotemporal variations in the runoff in the
middle Yellow River and its driving forces, using the methods of Spearman rank correlation test, regime
shift index, and double mass curve, based on the 1957-2018 hydrological series at four mainstream
stations and eleven typical tributaries in Toudaoguai-Huayuankou reach. The results reveal a significant
decreasing trend at the significance level of 0.001 in the annual runoff in the middle Yellow Rivermainstream and two abrupt changes in its hydrological regime in 1969 and 1987. Since the 1970s, the
runoff depth in these tributaries has reduced with time significantly; the runoff proportion of Toudaoguai-
Longmen reach to the entire middle Yellow River has decreased from 31% to 23.5% around the year 2000,
while the proportions of all the reaches below Longmen have increased obviously. The average
contribution rate of human activities to runoff variations was 62.68% in Toudaoguai-Longmen reach and
79.85% in Longmen-Tongguan reach. The major driving forces of runoff reduction are the operation of
water conservancy projects and the implementation of soil and water conservation measures, such as
reservoirs, check dams, irrigation water diversion works, and terraces.