水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

基于 3 a 连续冬小麦 － 夏玉米覆膜轮作试验校准和验证 AquaCrop 模型的适用性，模拟研究了气候变化
对夏玉米生长、产量和水分利用的影响，分析了覆膜措施对气候变化的应对效果。结果表明:关中地区(以武功、宝
鸡和西安地区为例)年平均温度呈逐年递增趋势，温度增加幅度由高到低依次为宝鸡、西安和武功，增温速率分别为
0．20、0．12 ℃·10a
－1
和 0．09 ℃·10a
－1
;降雨量呈逐年递减趋势，减少幅度大小依次为西安、宝鸡和武功，减小量分别
为 3．59、3．23 mm·10a
－1
和 2．64 mm·10a
－1
。AquaCrop 模型在关中地区表现出了良好的适用性，可以较好地模拟连
续覆膜条件下作物的产量指标、水分利用和生长的动态变化，冠层覆盖度模拟值和实测值之间的均方根误差
(RMSE)介于 1．1%～15．3%，生物量模拟值和实测值之间的 RMSE 介于 0．626～2．540 t·hm
－2
，土壤贮水量模拟值和实
测值之间的 RMSE 介于 12．6～47．4 mm。模拟研究表明，上世纪 60 年代以来，随着气温不断升高，武功、宝鸡和西安
地区的夏玉米生育期均呈逐年缩短趋势，特别是1980s 以来，减少幅度达 2．76、4．82 d·10a
－1
和5．94 d·10a
－1
;在不同
的降水年型下，覆膜处理产量均高于裸地处理，且其变异系数较小;在干旱气候条件下，覆膜处理依然可以获得一定
的籽粒产量，与裸地处理相比，覆膜处理表现出了较好的稳产效应。同时，覆膜处理有效减少了玉米苗期土壤表层
蒸发(平均减少 7．6 mm)，从而在土壤中保蓄更多的降雨;覆膜处理虽然增加了土壤耗水量，但其通过保蓄土壤水分，
稳定作物产量，有效提高了玉米的水分利用效率。因此，关中地区旱作覆膜可以有效适应当地气候变化，在一定程
度上应对干旱气候，具有较好的增产稳产效应。

 The applicability of AquaCrop model was calibrated and verified based on the experiment of winter
wheat-summer maize rotation under mulching from October 2013 to June 2016． The effects of climate change on the
growth，yield，and water utilization of summer maize were simulated，and the effects of mulching on impact of cli-
mate change were analyzed． The results showed that the average annual temperature in Guanzhong (Wugong，
Baoji，and Xi’an) increased while the rainfall decreased during the growing seasons． The temperature distributed
from high in Baoji to low in Wugong and intermediate in Xi’an，and the rate of temperature increase was 0．20，
0．12℃·10a
－1
，and 0．09℃·10a
－1
． The decreases of rainfall in Xi’an，Baoji，and Wugong were 3．59，3．23 mm，
and 2．64 mm 10a
－1
． The AquaCrop model had good applicability in Guanzhong and simulated the yield，water utili-zation，and dynamics of crop growth of wheat and maize under mulching． The root mean square error (RMSE) be-
tween simulated and measured canopy coverage values ranged from 1．1% to 15．3%，the RMSE of biomass values
ranged from 0．626 t·hm
－2
to 2．540 t·hm
－2
，and the RMSE of soil water storage values ranged from 12．6 mm to
47．4 mm．The simulation results showed that temperature was rising since the 1960’s．The growth of summer maize
during the growing seasons in Wugong，Baoji，and Xi’an showed a decreasing trend with the reduction as high as
2．76，4．82 d·10a
－1
，and 5．94 d·10a
－1
，especially，since the 1980’s． The yield with mulching was higher than
that with control，and its coefficient of variation was small under different precipitation year types． Also，the mulching
helped obtaining the grain yield and it promoted yield compared with the control under drought climate． Additionally，
the mulching effectively reduced the evaporation of soil surface layer during maize seedling stage and conserved more
rainfall in soil，which is needed for maize growth in later stage (an average reduction of 7．6 mm)． Although mulching
increased soil water consumption，it effectively improved water use efficiency of maize by conserving soil water and
stabilizing crop yield． The mulching on summer maize in Guanzhong can adapt to climate change effectively and deal
with drought climate to a certain extent，it has a good effect of increasing production and stabilizing production．