水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

本研究利用基于过程的动态植被模型 LPJ-GUESS 模拟并分析陕西省栎类林和刺槐
林在未来时期(2015—2100 年)不同气候情景下净初级生产力(NPP)和净生态系统生产力
(NEP)的动态变化和趋势．结果表明: 与基准时期(1961—1990 年)相比，未来时期陕北地区
栎类林和刺槐林 NPP 将分别下降 4．9%～29．5%、22．5%～56．2%，而在关中和陕南地区栎类林
和刺槐林 NPP 将分别升高 13．0%～49．0%、21．3%～62．9%; 未来时期，不同情景下的栎类林和
刺槐林 NPP 均表现为 ＲCP 2．6 ＜ＲCP 4．5 ＜ＲCP 8．5 ;未来时期，2 种不同类型森林在陕北、关中、陕南
3 个分区均表现为碳汇，栎类林在陕北和关中地区的碳汇功能更强，而刺槐林在陕南地区的碳
汇功能更强;3 个分区刺槐林在不同 ＲCP 情景下 NEP 的变化幅度均大于栎类林．

We analyzed the changes of net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem produc-
tivity (NEP) of Quercus spp． forest and Ｒobinia pseudoacacia plantation under different future cli-
mate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015－2100，using the process－based dynamic vegetation
model-LPJ-GUESS． The results showed that compared with the benchmark period (1961－1990)，
NPP of Quercus spp． forest and Ｒ． pseudoacacia plantation in northern Shaanxi would decrease by
4．9%－29．5% and 22．5% －56．2% respectively，while that in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi
would increase by 13．0%－49．0% and 21．3%－62．9% respectively in the future． The NPP of Quer-
cus spp． forest and Ｒ． pseudoacacia plantation under the ＲCP 8．5 scenario was the highest，followed
by that under the ＲCP 4．5 and ＲCP 2．6 scenarios． Those two types of forest would be carbon sink in
three subregions in the future． Quercus spp． forest would have stronger carbon sink function in nor-
thern Shaanxi and Guanzhong，while Ｒ． pseudoacacia plantation would have stronger carbon sink
function in Southern Shaanxi． Under different ＲCP scenarios，the NEP variation range of Ｒ． pseu-
doacacia plantation was greater than that of Quercus spp． forest in three subregions．