水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

以黄土高原泾河流域为例，利用2001—2012 年的MOD17A2H GPP 数据、流域范围28 个站点气象及辐
射数据，以及农业统计年鉴数据，采用MK 趋势检验和回归分析等方法，对流域尺度GPP、生产潜力与粮食产量的时
空分布特征及相互关系进行了分析。结果表明: ( 1) 研究时段内，泾河流域单位面积年GPP 随时间呈增加趋势，流
域平均GPP 为519．6 g·m－2·a－1。GPP 空间格局总体上与降雨分布特征一致，自西北向东南逐渐增加，北部为GPP
低值区，两侧山地林区和河川区为GPP 高值区，南部的长武、正宁、旬邑、彬县一带是GPP 次高值区。( 2) 泾河流域
光温生产潜力在空间上整体自西向东呈增加趋势，南北向呈“马鞍形”分布，范围为16 462 ～ 21 786 kg·hm－2 ; 气候
生产潜力在空间上自西北向东南呈增加趋势，其变化范围为4 945～ 12 412 kg·hm－2 ; 研究时段内，二者的年际变化
趋势都不显著。( 3) 泾河流域粮食产量在空间上自西北向东南增加，2001—2012 年间单位面积粮食产量逐年增加，
流域内大部分县区的作物气候生产潜力与粮食产量差值在6 000 kg·hm－2 以上。( 4) 对各站点数据的统计分析表
明，空间分布上泾河流域单位面积粮食产量、作物气候生产潜力及GPP 两两之间的相关性分别达到了极显著水平;
时间过程上单位面积粮食产量与GPP 之间显著相关。单位面积粮食产量与MODIS－GPP 时空间的极显著相关性展
示了通过遥感数据估算粮食产量的有效性，有助于推进区域粮食产量的预测预报。

Based on the data from MOD17A2H GPP，28 meteorological stations，and agricultural statistical
yearbook from 2001 to 2012，and the methods of MK trend testing and regression analysis，etc．，this paper analyzed
the relationships among the gross primary productivity ( GPP) ，potential productivity and actual grain yield，
and their spatial-temporal distribution characteristics in the Jing Rever Basin． The results showed that: ( 1) The
GPP in the Jing River Basin had an increasing trend with an average value of 519．6 g·m－2·a－1 ． The spatial pattern
of GPP was generally consistent with the distribution of precipitation，and it gradually increased from the northwest
to the southeast． The northern part of the basin was a low-value area of GPP，the mountainous forest lands and
river valleys were high-value areas，and Changwu，Zhengning，Xunyi，and Binxian in the southern part were the
secondary high-value areas． ( 2) Spatially，the potential productivity of light and temperature was increasing from
the west to the east in the Jing River Basin，with a“saddle-shaped”distribution in the north-south direction，ranging
from 16 462～21 786 kg·hm－2 ; and the climatic potential productivity was increasing from the northwest to  the southeast with a range of 4 945～12 412 kg·hm－2 ． From 2001 to 2012，there were no significant trends of interannual
changes in the two potential productivity． ( 3) The crop grain yield in the Jing River Basin increased spatially
from the northwest to the southeast，and showed an increasing trend during the study period． The differences
between crop climatic potential productivity and its grain yield were above 6 000 kg·hm－2 in most areas of the Jing
River Basin． ( 4) The spatial correlation coefficients between the crop grain yield，the climatic potential productivity，
and GPP reached very significant level ( P＜0．01) ，respectively; and the temporal correlation coefficient between
crop grain yield and GPP reached a significant level ( P＜0．05) ． The very significant correlation between the
crop yield and MODIS－GPP demonstrated the availability of estimating grain yield through remote sensing，which is
helpful to the prediction of regional grain yield．