水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

黄土丘陵区实施退耕还林还草工程以来成效显著，有效改善了生态环境，然而农
业产业与资源的一致性较弱，林草资源量过剩，农业产业发展未建立在对农业资源有
效利用的基础上，农业产业-资源系统发展处于相悖态势。为解决系统发展的相悖态
势，协调农业产业系统和农业资源系统的关系，就要对农业产业-资源系统进行优化
耦合，其关键在于弄清农业产业-资源系统的耦合过程和演变规律。基于农业产业与
资源系统发展相悖的现实，对系统链网结构进行分析，明确系统链网循环路径演变规
律，对系统链网结构进行表征，利用耦合过程模型从定量的角度阐明农业产业系统与
农业资源系统的相互作用关系，判定农业产业-资源系统各阶段的耦合态势，并选取
黄土高原丘陵区典型代表流域——县南沟流域进行实证分析，通过对不同优化情境下
系统发展态势的分析，为系统结构优化提供依据，使得资源得到合理、高效利用，加
速产业结构优化升级。主要结论有:
1、黄土丘陵区农业产业-资源系统链网结构变化过程可以划分为四个阶段：I.农
业资源系统修复与结构调整阶段→II.农业产业系统（结构）适应阶段→III.农业产业
-资源系统局部相悖阶段→IV.农业产业-资源系统优化耦合阶段。县南沟流域退耕工
程实施以来，系统已经经历了第 I 阶段（1999-2003 年）、第 II 阶段（2004-2010 年）、
第 III 阶段（2011-），现处于第 III 阶段。在这个过程中农业资源系统得以恢复重建，
农业产业系统结构逐渐调整，经济效益逐年上升，然而农业产业系统与农业资源系统
并未达到协调发展状态，目前林草资源丰富且未得到合理、有效利用，因此需要进一
步优化农业产业-资源耦合系统结构，以促进区域可持续发展。同时，还可以得出：
农业产业-资源系统链网结构可通过资源环境、农业资源、农业产业、经济效益予以
表征。
2、构建了县南沟流域农业产业-资源系统耦合过程模型。针对黄土丘陵区农业产
业-资源系统演变轨迹发生变化的现实，参照农业生态经济系统耦合过程模型，建立
农业产业-资源系统耦合过程模型：（其中 ar(t)、ai(t)分别表示时间 t 时农业资源系统与农业产
业系统总量， dar(t)/dt、dai(t)/dt 分别表示 t 时农业资源系统与农业产业系统的演化
速度，k 1 、k 2 、k 3 、k 4 为影响系数，e 1 、e 2 分别为外力对农业资源系统与农业产业系统
影响后导致其演变轨迹发生变化后的调整系数，x i (i=1,2,,,m)表示农业资源系统表征量，
y j (j=1,2,,,n)表示农业产业系统表征量，p i 、q j 分别为对应的权重，  (p i x i )、  (q i y i )分别
为外力引起资源系统与产业系统偏离后的增量）。
3、明确了耦合过程模型中参数 k 1 、k 2 、k 3 、k 4 的变化过程及其代表的生态经济意
义。 k 值为正时，农业产业-资源系统状态对系统演化速度起促进作用，k 值为负时，
农业产业-资源系统状态对系统演化速度起抑制作用。基于农业资源系统发展角度而
言，在 k 1 、k 2 都为正的情境下，无论是农业产业的发展还是农业资源的建设，对农业
资源系统的演化速度都起促进作用；在 k 1 >0、k 2 <0 的情境下，农业资源的开发利用
对农业资源所依赖的环境以及农业资源的演变起促进作用，农业资源还有进一步增长
的空间；在 k 1 <0 的情境下，农业资源发展的空间已经达到了极值，农业资源量趋于
稳定。基于农业产业系统发展角度而言，在 k 4 >0 的情境下，农业产业的发展对农业
产业系统的演化速度起促进作用，其中 k 3 >0 时农业产业发展建立在对农业资源的开
发利用上， k 3 <0 时农业资源支撑农业产业的发展较弱，农业产业系统的发展方向和
规模需要进一步调整；在 k 4 <0 的情境下，农业产业的发展对农业产业系统演化速度
起抑制作用。
4、依据农业产业-资源系统耦合过程模型，对县南沟流域两种可能发展路径下的
农业产业-资源系统耦合关系进行了预测。（1）融入碳汇产业情景：碳汇产业融入系
统后，系数 e 2 变化为正，增大了农业产业发展对农业产业系统演化速度的影响，可
使资源系统演化速度提升 2.56 倍，（2）融入碳汇+“轮牧+舍饲”养殖制度情境：系
数 e 2 变化为正且变化值更大，进一步增大了农业产业发展对农业产业系统演化速度
的影响，可使资源系统演化速度提升 4.66 倍。
5、以县南沟流域为案例的实证结果表明：退耕还林还草工程实施过程及方案有
待于根据黄土丘陵区实际发展状况进行优化，促进碳汇产业的发展，使农业资源得到
合理、高效利用，加速产业优化升级,实现农业产业-资源系统的良性耦合。
关键词: 农业产业-资源系统；链网结构；演变路径；碳汇；县南沟流域

The implementation of the project of returning farmland to forests in hilly area of the
Loess Plateau (grass) has remarkable results, it has improved the ecological environment
effectively. However, the consistency of agricultural industry and resources is relatively
weak, forest resources are over plus, the development of agricultural industry is not based
on the effective utilization of agricultural resources, and the developments of the system of
agricultural industry and agricultural resources are in the opposite situation. In order to
solve the contradiction, balance agricultural industry and agricultural resources system, the
agricultural industry and resources should be coupled, and the key is to find out the
evolution laws of agricultural industry-resource system. We analysis the system chain
network structure based on the reality that the couple between agricultural industry and
resources system is not good. Coupling process model was used to elucidate the
agricultural industry and agricultural resources system by quantitative determination. In
order to determine the coupling situation of the agricultural industry-resource system, the
development in different situation was analyzed to make sure the reasonable utilization of
resources and to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure. Empirical Analysis in
watershed of the typical hilly area of the Loess Plateau – Xiannangou watershed was done.
The main results are as follows:
1. The variation process of the agricultural industry-resource system’ chain network
structure in Loess Hilly region can be divided into four stages: I. agricultural resources
system restoration and structure adjustment stage, II. agricultural industry system (structure)
adaptation phase, III. agricultural industry-resource system local counter phase, IV.
agricultural industry-resource system optimized coupling phase. The system has gone
through the stage I (1999-2003), stage II (2004-2010) and stage III (2011-) since the
implementation of the project,, and it is now in phase III. The agricultural industry system
gradually adjusted its structure and the economic benefit increased year by year in the  process of the agricultural resources system reconstruction, but the agricultural industry
system did not reach the state of coordinated development with the agricultural resource
system. The forest resource is rich but did not get a reasonable and effective use at present,
so we need to further optimize the agricultural industry-resource system to promote the
structure of the coupling system and regional sustainable development. At the same time, it
can also be drawn that agricultural industry-resource system chain network structure can be
characterized  by  environmental  resources,  agricultural  resources,  agricultural
industrialization and economic table.
2. Established the couple process model of agricultural industry-resource system in
Xiannangou watershed. With the development of agricultural industry-resource system in
Loess Hilly region, we established and analyzed a couple process model referred the
agricultural ecological-economic couple process model.  ( ar(t) is the gross of the agricultural resource system and ai(t)
is the gross of the agricultural industry system; dar(t)/dt is the external force’s evolution
speed in t of the agricultural resource system and dai(t)/dt is the external force’s evolution
speed in t of the agricultural industry system; k 1 , k 2 , k 3 and k 4 are influence factors; e 1 is the
adjustment coefficient of the agricultural resource system and e 2 is the adjustment
coefficient of the agricultural industry system; x i (i=1,2,,,m) is the quantity of the
agricultural resource system; p i and q j are weight;   (p i x i ) is the increment of the resource
system by external force and   (q i y i ) is the increment of the industry system by external
force)
3.Illuminated  parameter’s  (k 1 ,  k 2 ,  k 3 ,  k 4 )  changing  process  and  their
ecological-economic significance in the couple process model. When k>0, the agricultural
industry-resource system play a driving role in system evolution speed and vice versa.
when k 1 >0, k 2 >0, the development of agricultural industry and agricultural resource all
play a driving role in the agricultural industry-resource system’s evolution speed; when
k 1 >0, k 2 <0, the agricultural resource has growing space, no matter in agricultural resource’s
environment and evolution; when k 1 <0, the space of the development of agricultural  resource is max and the agricultural resource quantity is in a stable value. For the
agricultural  industry-resource  system’s  development,  the  agricultural  industry’s
development plays a driving role in the agricultural industry system’s evolution when k 4 >0
and vice versa. When k 4 >0, k 3 >0, the development and utilization of agricultural resource
rely on the development of agricultural industry. When k 4 >0, k 3 <0, the agricultural
resource can’t support the agricultural industry well, the development direction and scale
of the agricultural industry system need more adjustment.
4. Rely on the couple process model of the agricultural industry-resource system, we
anticipated two possible development path of Xiannangou watershed’s agricultural
industry-resource system’s coupling relationship. (1) Consider carbon sink industry: when
we put carbon sink industry into the agricultural industry-resource system, parameter e 2
begin positive, increased the influence that the development of agricultural industry to the
evolution of agricultural industry system and the evolution speed of the agricultural
resource system increased 2.56 times. (2) Built a new breeding method which include
carbon sink , rotational grazing and confinedness: parameter e 2 begin positive and the
changed value is bigger, increased the influence that the development of agricultural
industry to the evolution speed of the agricultural industry system, and the evolution speed
of resource system increased 4.66 times.
5. Taking Xiannangou watershed as a case of empirical results show that: the
implementation process and the plan of Grain for Green Project need to be optimized
according to the actual situation in Loess Hilly region, and the development of carbon
industry need to be promoted to improve the reasonable and efficient utilization of
agricultural resources and to accelerate industrial upgrading, so as to realize the benign
coupling of the agricultural industry resources system.
Key words: Agricultural industry-resource system; Chain network structure; Evolution
path; Carbon sequestration; Xiannangou watershed.