水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

基于河龙区间12 个雨量站点1957—2011 年降雨日数据及输沙量年数据，采用滑动平均、线性倾向估计、
Mann-Kendall 非参数检验、累计距平、双累积曲线等方法，分析了河龙区间近55 a 降雨侵蚀力和输沙量的动态变化
过程以及二者之间的相关关系，定量评估了降雨侵蚀力变化和人类活动对河龙区间输沙量变化的影响及贡献率。
结果表明，河龙区间近55 a 降雨侵蚀力在378. 1 ～ 2 324. 6 MJ·mm/( hm2·h·a) 之间变化，其平均值为
1 319. 7 MJ·mm/( hm2·h·a) ; 整个研究期内降雨侵蚀力呈不显著减小趋势，年均减小量为9. 7 MJ·mm/( hm2·h·a) 。
近55 a 降雨侵蚀力变化过程可划分为3 个阶段: 1957—1974 年为快速下降阶段，其下降率为83. 7%; 1975—1999
年为缓慢下降阶段，其下降率为66. 6%; 2000—2011 年为缓慢回升阶段，其上升率为42. 7%。以1957—1969 年降
雨侵蚀力为基准，20 世纪70、80、90 年代以及21 世纪前12 a 降雨侵蚀力分别减小了15. 9%、19. 5%、27. 5% 和
22. 7%。河龙区间近55 a 输沙量变化介于( 0. 09 ～ 21. 37) 亿t 之间，其平均值为5. 6 亿t。整个研究期内输沙量呈
极显著的下降趋势，其下降速率为0. 19 亿t /a。以1957—1969 年输沙量为基准， 20 世纪70、80、90 年代以及21 世
纪前12 a 输沙量分别减少了27. 3%、64. 1%、54. 8% 和88. 7%。经Mann-Kendall 非参数检验法和累计曲线法综合
判定， 1979 年为河龙区间输沙量突变年份。输沙量与降雨侵蚀力具有极好的线性相关性。通过建立二者双累积曲
线方程，计算得出20 世纪80、90 年代和21 世纪前12 a 降雨侵蚀力变化对输沙量变化的贡献率分别为22. 6%、
44. 3%和19. 0%，而人类活动对输沙量变化的贡献率分别为77. 4%、55. 7%和81. 0%，人类活动对输沙量变化的影
响程度较大。1980—1989 年和2000—2011 年具有基本相同的降雨侵蚀力条件，但后者的输沙量却比前者减少
67. 6%，表明2000—2011 年河流输沙量的变化主要由人类活动引起，人类活动每年减少输沙量2. 5 亿t。

The dynamic change of rainfall erosivity and river sediment discharge as well as the correlation
between river sediment discharge and rainfall erosivity were analyzed based on daily rainfall data and
yearly sediment discharge of 12 rainfall stations located in He-Long reach of the Yellow Ｒiver from 1957
to 2011． Meanwhile，the impact and contribution of rainfall erosivity changes and human activities on the
river sediment discharge changes were quantitatively evaluated． The main methods used were the moving
average，linear trend estimation，Mann-Kendall nonparametric test，cumulative departure curve and
double mass curve． The results showed that rainfall erosivity in He-Long reach from 1957 to 2011 shiftedfrom 378. 1 MJ·mm/( hm2 ·h·a ) to 2 324. 6 MJ·mm/( hm2 ·h·a ) with a mean of
1 319. 7 MJ·mm/( hm2·h·a) ，and rainfall erosivity did not exhibit significant downtrend． The decrement
of rainfall erosivity per year in 1957—2011 was 9. 7 MJ·mm/( hm2·h·a) ． The changing trend of rainfall
erosivity was divided into three stages during past 55 years in He-Long reach，which consisted of a rapid
declining trend from 1957 to 1974，a slow decreasing trend from 1975 to 1999，and a slow increasing
trend from 2000 to 2011． The declining rates of the first and second stages were 83. 7% and 66. 6%，
respectively，and the increasing rate of the third stage was 42. 7%． With rainfall erosivity in 1957—1969
as a reference，rainfall erosivities in the 1970s，1980s，1990s and the first 12 years of the 21st century
were decreased by 15. 9%，19. 5%，27. 5% and 22. 7%，respectively． The river sediment discharge in
He-Long reach from 1957 to 2011 shifted from 9 × 106 t to 2. 14 × 109 t with a mean of 5. 60 × 108 t，and
river sediment discharge showed highly significant downtrend． The decrement of river sediment discharge
in 1957—2011 was 1. 9 × 107 t /a． With river sediment discharge in 1957—1969 as a reference，river
sediment discharges in the 1970s，1980s，1990s and the first 12 years of the 21st century were decreased
by 27. 3%，64. 1%，54. 8% and 88. 7%，respectively． The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the
cumulative departure curve showed that the abrupt change of river sediment discharge appeared in 1979．
There was a better linear correlation between river sediment discharge and rainfall erosivity． According to
the double mass curve equation，the contributions of rainfall erosivity to the river sediment discharge
changes in the 1980s，1990s and the first 12 years of the 21st century were 22. 6%，44. 3% and
19. 0%，respectively; while the contributions of human activities to the river sediment discharge changes
were 77. 4%，55. 7% and 81. 0%，respectively． Therefore，the impact of human activities on the river
sediment discharge changes was dominated． Although rainfall erosivity in two periods of 1980—1989 and
2000—2011 was similar，river sediment discharge in 2000—2011 was decreased by 67. 6%，compared
with that in 1980—1989． Thus，the river sediment discharge changes were mainly caused by human
activities and the decrement of river sediment discharge per year caused by human activities was 2. 5 ×
108 t in 2000—2011．