水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

为了明确西北地区耕地生产力及其动态演变过程，掌握该区在全国粮食生产中的整体水平，利用
1982—2012 年西北地区耕地生产力数据，结合 GIS 分析描述了该区近 30 年耕地生产力和耕地压力指数动态演变
过程，及该区在全国粮食生产中的整体水平，结果表明:近 30 年来，西北地区耕地生产力呈现出小范围波动、连续
上涨的发展趋势，从 1982 年的 2078． 28 kg·hm
－2 上升至2012 年的5 643． 75 kg·hm －2 ，翻了近3 番，但其年均增长
率不稳定，年际间变化幅度相对较大，在 1996 年到达历史最高水平 23%;西北地区耕地生产力在全国的比重明显
上升(由 1982 年的 0． 455 上升到 2012 年的 0． 749)，但又始终低于全国平均水平(耕地粮食生产力指数始终小于
1)，随着时间的推移，该区粮食生产中心主要向粮食生产能力较高的新疆和陕西地区集中;西北地区耕地压力指数
在阶段性波动变化中呈现出略微减小趋势，耕地压力有所缓解，但其缓解幅度并不大，耕地压力级别始终处在Ⅱ级
预警值(0． 91 ～1． 10)范围内。

 In order to evaluate the dynamic evolution of cultivated land productivity in Northwest China and
assess the overall level of grain production in the country，productivity data in cultivated land of Northwest China
during 1982—2012 were analyzed using GIS software． The results showed that cultivated land productivity in north-
west area displayed a fluctuating but constantly increasing tendency in a small scale，resulting a three times in-
crease from 2078． 28 kg·hm
－2
in 1982 to 5643． 75 kg·hm
－2
in 2012． However，the average annual growth rate
was not stable and the inter-annual variation remained large，reaching a historically high value of 23% in 1996．
The cultivated land capacity in northwest area became increased significantly (from 0． 455in 1982 to 0． 749 in
2012)，which，however，had always been lower than the national average level (relative index of cultivated land
productivity was always less than 1)． With time going，grain production centers in the area moved mainly to Xin-
jiang and Shaanxi that have higher grain production capacity． The pressure index of cultivated land in northwest re-
gion showed periodical fluctuations with a slightly decreasing trend，relieving cultivated land pressure to a mild lev-
el． The pressure level of cultivated land had always been at warning level II in a certain range(0． 91 ～1． 10)．