KMS Institute of soil and water conservation Chinese Academy of Sciences
Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100 | |
Shouzhang Peng1,2; Chengcheng Gang1,2; Yang Cao1,2; Yunming Chen1,2; Chen, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Chen, YM (reprint author), Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China. | |
文章类型 | Article |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
通讯作者邮箱 | ymchen@ms.iswc.ac.cn |
卷号 | 38期号:5页码:2250-2264 |
摘要 | The Loess Plateau (LP) in China is sensitive to climate change because of its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. This study presents a detailed assessment of the climate change trends over the LP from 1901 to 2100 based on the 1-km spatial resolution climate data generated through delta downscaling. The following results are drawn: (1) Delta downscaling performs well in detecting the monthly precipitation and temperature over the LP based on the mean absolute error between downscaled data and independent surface observations. Among the 28 general circulation models, the GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM1-M models show the best performance in reproducing the monthly precipitation and temperature in the future period, respectively. (2) The annual precipitation over the entire LP shows no significant trends in the historical and future periods. By contrast, the annual temperature shows a significantly increasing trend with 0.097 degrees C/10 year in the historical period (1901-2014) and with 0.113, 0.24, 0.355, and 0.558 degrees C/10 year in the future period (2015-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. (3) The significantly increasing trends in precipitation and temperature at each grid of the LP present various spatial distributions in terms of their magnitude. The significant trend magnitude calculated by the downscaled data has a larger range and a higher percentage of area - and is even observed at a small area-compared with that calculated by the raw data. (4) The spatial results calculated by the downscaled data provide more detailed information about the locations and percentages of area, both of which are valuable in assessing the change trends in precipitation and temperature. These spatio-temporal results present the climate change trends over the LP in detail and provide valuable insights for developing flexible adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the climate change challenges in this region. |
关键词 | Climate Change Delta Downscaling Mann-kendall Trend Test Sen's Slope Estimator Loess Plateau |
学科领域 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5331 |
收录类别 | SCI |
出版地 | 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428880600009 |
出版者 | WILEY |
项目资助者 | National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41601058, 31602004] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; CAS 'Light of West China' Program [XAB2015B07] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-3] ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' ; key cultivation project of Chinese Academy of Sciences 'The promotion and management of ecosystem functions of restored vegetation in Loess Plateau, China' |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | sbir.nwafu.edu.cn/handle/361005/8268 |
专题 | 水保所科研产出--SCI_2018--SCI |
通讯作者 | Chen, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.; Chen, YM (reprint author), Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China. |
作者单位 | 1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Minist Water Resources, 26 Xinong Rd, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shouzhang Peng,Chengcheng Gang,Yang Cao,et al. Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(5):2250-2264. |
APA | Shouzhang Peng,Chengcheng Gang,Yang Cao,Yunming Chen,Chen, YM ,&Chen, YM .(2018).Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(5),2250-2264. |
MLA | Shouzhang Peng,et al."Assessment of climate change trends over the Loess Plateau in China from 1901 to 2100".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.5(2018):2250-2264. |
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