Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios

doi:10.3390/f9010009

ISWC OpenIR > 水保所科研产出--SCI > 2018--SCI

	Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios
	Huang, Jinghua 1; Li, Guoqing 1; Li, Jie 2; Zhang, Xiaoqin1,3 ; Yan, Meijie 1; Du, Sheng 1; Li, GQ (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China.
文章类型	Article
	2018
发表期刊	FORESTS
ISSN	1999-4907
通讯作者邮箱	jhhuang@nwsuaf.edu.cn ; liguoqing@nwsuaf.edu.cn ; jxsyzxlj@163.com ; zxqin333@163.com ; yanmj@ms.iswc.ac.cn ; shengdu@ms.iswc.ac.cn
卷号	9 期号:1
摘要	Understanding the impact of climate change on range shifts in climatically suitable habitats of tree species is important for national afforestation planning, which can enhance the adaptation of tree plantation to climate change through movement of tree to follow suitable climatic conditions. Here, we overlap the current and future climate-related ranges of Chinese sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. sinensis), an important tree used for afforestation in China, to estimate the range shift in three geographic dimensions (latitude, longitude and elevation) between 2000 and 2070, which are projected by the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) under current climate conditions and four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Our results show that the performance of the MaxEnt is highly accurate, with test AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) value of 0.91, Kappa value of 0.83 and predicted accuracy of 92%. About 10.7% area of land in China is climatically suitable for Chinese sea buckthorn plantation. Low representative concentration paths will have more effect on loss of climatic range and less effect on expansion of climatic range for Chinese sea buckthorn, while the impacts of high representative concentration path is the opposite. The centroids of climatic ranges will shift westward or northwestward at the rate of 10.4-22 km per decade, and the centroids of altitude will shift upward at the rate of 43-128 m per decade. The expansion area of climatically suitable habitat, covering 2.6-5.2 x 10(5) km(2), is expected to be mainly located in parts of Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, Sichuan, Liaoning, and Jilin provinces; these areas should be monitored for planting of Chinese sea buckthorn in the future.
关键词	Chinese Sea Buckthorn Climatic Change Potential Distribution Range Expansion Ecological Niche
学科领域	Forestry
DOI	10.3390/f9010009
收录类别	SCI
出版地	ST ALBAN-ANLAGE 66, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000424115000009
出版者	MDPI AG
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	sbir.nwafu.edu.cn/handle/361005/7853
专题	水保所科研产出--SCI_2018--SCI
通讯作者	Li, GQ (reprint author), Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 2.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Forestry, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China 3.Heze Univ, Coll Landscape Engn, Heze 274015, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Jinghua,Li, Guoqing,Li, Jie,et al. Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios[J]. FORESTS,2018,9(1).
APA	Huang, Jinghua.,Li, Guoqing.,Li, Jie.,Zhang, Xiaoqin.,Yan, Meijie.,...&Li, GQ .(2018).Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios.FORESTS,9(1).
MLA	Huang, Jinghua,et al."Projecting the Range Shifts in Climatically Suitable Habitat for Chinese Sea Buckthorn under Climate Change Scenarios".FORESTS 9.1(2018).

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