水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

Crop production vulnerability to climate
change in Northwest China depends upon multiple
socio-ecological factors. Knowledge regarding the
specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing
crop production vulnerability is limited that address
spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse
zones. We propose an integrated assessment
framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop
production derived from crop yield sensitivity,
exposure, and adaptive consequences across 338
counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014. Maps
on these indices were generated using climatic and
socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method.
Different clusters of crop production vulnerability
were then identified by a k-means cluster method to
assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional
scale. Results show that the vulnerability of crop
production in 338 counties varies significantly in both
geographical and socioeconomic aspects, specifically,
vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,
Menyuan, Hualong, and Ledu, and Xayar had the
lowest value of vulnerability. This indicates that
adaptation strategies for regional crop production
need to focus on several levels, from the improvement
of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation bypromoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing
limited water resources in typical arid areas, to
agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the
capital investment and technology upgrade of crop
production on traditional farming regions. This study
provides convincing evidence that the factors related
to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming
when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation
fluctuations. We recommend these findings be used to
facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop
production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food
security in specific regions.