Maize, rice, and wheat are the major staple food crops in China and are crucial components of national food
security and economic development. The cultivation and production of these crops are expected to be affected by
climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, and have drawn considerable
public attention. The objective of this experiment was to understand the impact of future climate change
(including increased temperature and changed precipitation patterns) and elevated CO 2 concentration on vari-
ations of crop yields in their suitable planting areas. We conducted a spatial grid-based analysis of maize, rice,
and wheat yields using projections of future climate generated by a multi-model ensemble of global climate
models for three representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in suitable
planting areas in China for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). Suitable areas for the planting of
maize, rice, and wheat under the high-emission scenarios migrated slightly northward over time. Yield of all
three crops would be expected to remain stable or to slightly increase across China in the future. A possible
reason for this result may be because the positive effects of increased precipitation and CO 2 offset the negative
effect of increased temperature on crop yields, resulting in a much more appropriate growth environment and
increased biomass accumulation and crop yield. In addition, this study also indicated that changes in crop yields
were mainly driven by temperature and CO 2 factors. The potential effects of climate change and elevated CO 2
concentration on migration of planting areas and yield fluctuations for crops should be given greater attention in
the future.
1.State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University 2.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources 3.College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714
Yajie Zhang,Haishan Niu,Qiang Yu. Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s[J]. Ecological Indicators,2021,125(1):1-11.
APA
Yajie Zhang,Haishan Niu,&Qiang Yu.(2021).Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s.Ecological Indicators,125(1),1-11.
MLA
Yajie Zhang,et al."Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s".Ecological Indicators 125.1(2021):1-11.
Impacts of climate change and increasing carbon dioxide levels on yield changes of major crops in suitable planting areas in China by the 2050s 卷125.pdf
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