水保所知识产出(1956---)知识库

In recent decades, population growth and economic development have greatly influenced
the pattern of land use/land cover (LULC) in Rwanda. Nevertheless, LULC patterns and their
underlying change mechanisms under future climate conditions are not well known. Therefore, it
is particularly important to explore the direction of LULC transfer in the study area, identify the
factors driving the transfer of different types of LULC and their changes, and simulate future LULC
patterns under future climate conditions. Based on LULC analyses of Rwanda in 1990, 2000, 2010,
and 2015, the LULC pattern of Rwanda in the next 30 years was simulated using an LULC transition
matrix, random forest sampling, the Markov chain model, and the PLUS model. The results showed
that LULC change in the study area primarily comprised a decrease in forest area and expansion of
cropland area, accompanied by a small increase in grassland area and an annual increase in urban
land area. Prior to 2000, the LULC in Rwanda was mainly converted from forest and grassland to
cropland, with the ratio being 0.72:0.28. After 2010, the LULC was mainly converted from forest to
grassland and cropland, with the ratio being 0.83:0.17. Changes in forests, grasslands, and cropland
are driven by multiple factors, whereas changes in wetlands, water, urban land, and unused land are
more likely to be driven by a single factor. The existing trend of LULC change will continue for the
next 30 years, and the future LULC pattern will exhibit a trend in which cropland area will increase
in the west and grassland area will decrease, whereas grassland area will increase in the east and
cropland area will decrease.