This study analyzed the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) of Pinus tabulifor-
mis forest under future climate scenarios in Shaanxi Province during 2015-2100,using a dynamic
vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). The results showed that in the 2015-2100 period,annual mean
temperature of this region would significantly increase by 0.12,0.23 and 0.54 ℃ ·10 a
-1
under
RCP 2.6 ,RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios,respectively,while the annual precipitation would have no
significant change under climate scenarios except RCP 4.5 ,under which it would significantly
increase by 14.36 mm·10 a
-1
. Compared with the NPP of P. tabuliformis forest in the historical
period (1961-1990),it would increase by 1.6%-29.6% in the future period,and the enhance-
ment could reach 45.4% at the end of this century (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5 scenario. The NPP
under the RCP 8.5 scenario was the highest,followed by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios. During
2015-2100,the NPP in the northern Shaanxi region would significantly decrease with the rate of
41.00 and 21.00 g C·m
-2
·10 a
-1
under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios,respectively,implying
that this area has the potentiality to be carbon source.
修改评论